# Eval Report — 2026-06-30

Generated by `scripts/run_eval.sh` → `tsmm.eval.report`.

## Discipline notes
- **Main metric: VUS-PR** (threshold-free).
- **Point-F1 reported WITHOUT point-adjust.** PA-F1 shown separately as a CONTROL only.
- Trivial baselines (random / constant / all-report) are included.
- LLM-judge backend: `stub`.

## Dataset: synth

| predictor | n | VUS-PR | Aff-F1 | AUC-PR | Point-F1 | PA-F1(control) | parse_rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| model | 40 | 0.1414 | 0.1674 | 0.2343 | 0.1414 | 0.4296 | 1.00 |
| pure_llm | 40 | 0.2195 | 0.0000 | 0.2357 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| random | 40 | 0.2859 | 0.3484 | 0.2241 | 0.2859 | 0.9746 | 1.00 |
| constant | 40 | 0.2195 | 0.3771 | 0.2357 | 0.3395 | 1.0000 | 1.00 |
| all_report | 40 | 0.2195 | 0.3771 | 0.2357 | 0.3395 | 1.0000 | 1.00 |

_PA = point-adjust; shown as control only, not headline._

### QA judge (stub 0-5) — synth

| predictor | anomaly | compare | describe | event | forecast | root_cause | mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| model | 2.60 | 2.64 | 1.65 | 4.08 | 0.12 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| pure_llm | 0.04 | 1.21 | 0.17 | 1.57 | 0.13 | 2.18 | 0.88 |
| random | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| constant | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| all_report | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |

_QA judge = offline stub token-overlap heuristic; swap `--judge_backend openai` for GPT-4o scoring._